What effect might border screening have on preventing importation of COVID-19 compared with other infections?: considering the additional effect of post-arrival isolation. (11th August 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Bays, Declan; Bennett, Emma; Finnie, Thomas
• Is Part Of: Epidemiology and infection. Volume 150(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-08-11
• Subjects: COVID-19 -- Ebola -- influenza -- modelling -- screening programme; Communicable diseases -- Periodicals; Epidemiology -- Periodicals; 614.4
• DOI: 10.1017/S0950268822001327
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0950-2688

Abstract

Abstract: We recently described a simple model through which we assessed what effect subjecting travellers to a single on-arrival test might have on reducing risk of importing disease cases during simulated outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Ebola. We build upon this work to allow for the additional requirement that inbound travellers also undergo a period of self-isolation upon arrival, where upon completion the traveller is again tested for signs of infection prior to admission across the border. Prior results indicated that a single on-arrival test has the potential to detect 9% of travellers infected with COVID-19, compared to 35%, 10% and 3% for travellers infected with influenza, SARS and Ebola, respectively. Our extended model shows that testing administered after a 2-day isolation period could detect up to 41%, 97%, 44% and 15% of COVID-19, influenza, SARS and Ebola infected travellers, respectively. Longer self-isolation periods increase detection rates further, with an 8-day self-isolation period suggesting detection rates of up to 94%, 100%, 98% and 62% for travellers infected with COVID-19, influenza, SARS and Ebola, respectively. These results therefore suggest that testing arrivals after an enforced period of self-isolation may present a reasonable method of protecting against case importation during international outbreaks.