An interactive tool to forecast US hospital needs in the coronavirus 2019 pandemic. Issue 4 (30th November 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Locey, Kenneth J; Webb, Thomas A; Khan, Jawad; Antony, Anuja K; Hota, Bala
• Is Part Of: JAMIA open. Volume 3:Issue 4(2020)
• Page Start: 506
• Page End: 512
• Publication Date: 2020-11-30
• Subjects: COVID-19 -- epidemiology -- healthcare -- forecasting -- modeling -- SEIR; Medical informatics -- Periodicals; 610.285
• DOI: 10.1093/jamiaopen/ooaa045
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2574-2531

Abstract

Abstract: Objective: We developed an application (https://rush-covid19.herokuapp.com/ ) to aid US hospitals in planning their response to the ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Materials and Methods: Our application forecasts hospital visits, admits, discharges, and needs for hospital beds, ventilators, and personal protective equipment by coupling COVID-19 predictions to models of time lags, patient carry-over, and length-of-stay. Users can choose from 7 COVID-19 models, customize 23 parameters, examine trends in testing and hospitalization, and download forecast data. Results: Our application accurately predicts the spread of COVID-19 across states and territories. Its hospital-level forecasts are in continuous use by our home institution and others. Discussion: Our application is versatile, easy-to-use, and can help hospitals plan their response to the changing dynamics of COVID-19, while providing a platform for deeper study. Conclusion: Empowering healthcare responses to COVID-19 is as crucial as understanding the epidemiology of the disease. Our application will continue to evolve to meet this need.