Event‐Based Storylines to Address Climate Risk. Issue 2 (17th February 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Sillmann, Jana; Shepherd, Theodore G.; van den Hurk, Bart; Hazeleger, Wilco; Martius, Olivia; Slingo, Julia; Zscheischler, Jakob
• Is Part Of: Earth's future. Volume 9:Issue 2(2021)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2021-02-17
• Subjects: climate change -- decision‐making -- high‐impact events -- low likelihood -- risk -- storylines; Environmental sciences -- Periodicals; Environmental sciences; Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001783
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2328-4277

Abstract

Abstract: The climate science community is challenged to adopt an actionable risk perspective, which is difficult to align with the traditional focus on model‐based probabilistic climate change projections. Event‐based storylines can provide a way out of this conundrum by putting emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using "stress‐testing" for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific and plausible assumptions. Event‐based storylines allow for conditional explanations, without full attribution of every causal factor, which is crucial when some aspects of the latter are complex and highly uncertain. Plain Language Summary: One of today's major challenges is how to use insights and information from climate sciences to inform decision‐making regarding managing risks from climate change, where weather and climate extremes represent a major component of climate‐related risk. So far, climate science has taken a probabilistic approach producing large model ensembles and exploring likely ranges, thereby neglecting low‐likelihood but potentially high‐impact events that pose significant risks to society. Event‐based storylines are emerging as an alternative way to explore future high‐impact events while taking into account aspects of vulnerability and exposure of the considered system with an emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This concept links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using "stress‐testing" for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific, but plausible assumptions. When co‐developed by climate scientists and stakeholders, event‐based storylines can be informed by physical climate and impact modeling and can provide a useful way of communicating and assessing climate‐related risk in a specific decision‐making context. Key Points: Event‐based storylines are a way to communicate and assess climate risk taking into account aspects of vulnerability and exposure Event‐based storylines focus on plausibility rather than probability when looking at high‐impact events Event‐based storylines can provide climate information that feeds directly into a particular decision‐making context