Is Covid-19 a dread risk? The death toll of the pandemic year 2020 in long-term and transnational perspective. (September 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gill, Bernhard; Kehler, Theresa; Schneider, Michael
• Is Part Of: Futures. Volume 142(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-09
• Subjects: Covid-19 -- Dread risk -- Excess mortality -- Life years lost -- Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker -- Human Mortality Database; Economic forecasting -- Periodicals; Technological forecasting -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Prévision économique -- Périodiques; Prévision technologique -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Economic forecasting; Economic policy; Technological forecasting; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 330.0112
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2022.103017
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0016-3287

Abstract

Abstract: "Dread risks" are threats that can have catastrophic consequences. To analyse this issue we use excess mortality and corresponding life years lost as simple measures of the severity of pandemic events. As such, they are more robust than figures from models and testing procedures that usually inform public responses. We analyse data from OECD countries that are already fully available for the whole of 2020. To assess the severity of the pandemic, we compare with historical demographic events since 1880. Results show that reports of high excess mortality during peak periods and local outbreaks should not be taken as representative. Six countries saw a somewhat more increased percentage of life years lost (over 7%), nine countries show mild figures (0–7%), while seven countries had life year gains of up to 7%. So, by historical standards, Covid-19 is worse than regular flu, but a far cry from the Spanish Flu, which has become the predominant frame of reference for the current pandemic. Even though the demographic impact is modest, psychological aspects of the pandemic can still lead to transformative futures, as the reactions of East Asian societies to SARS I in 2003 showed. Highlights: "Excess mortality" and "life years lost" measures are robust tools to assess and compare the impact of historical events. In perspective on its death toll in OECD countries, Covid-19 is not a dread risk. In historical comparison since 1880, the death toll for 2020 is rather modest. In contrast to Spanish Flu, increased mortality rates are mainly observed in older age groups. Excess mortality is higher in countries where the government response is stronger, probably due to reverse causality.