Simulating emerging coastal tourism vulnerabilities: an agent-based modelling approach. (November 2020) - Student, Jillian
Abstract: Coastal tourism destinations face a range of climate-related changes. Prevailing challenges include understanding emerging changes and future uncertainties. A dynamic vulnerability approach is a promising way to analyse emerging socio-ecological vulnerabilities. This research presents an innovative coupling of the human-environment system in the agent-based model Coasting, and is applied to Curaçao's coastal tourism. We observe how operator numbers and environmental attractiveness, proxies for socio-ecological vulnerabilities, change over time. Global sensitivity analysis highlights the main interacting factors behind socio-ecological vulnerabilities. Scenario discovery explores the main drivers contributing to undesirable vulnerabilities. The model's findings provide key insights on which factors tourism destinations need to focus on to prevent socio-ecological vulnerabilities. Graphical abstract: Unlabelled Image Highlights: Integrates heterogeneous human-environmental systems in an agent-based model Investigates influence of environmental change on the coastal destination Curaçao Identifies factors leading to undesirable scenarios as well as environmental action Innovative analysis tools can inform decision-making on emerging vulnerabilities Model design enables use for additional destinations and environmental challenges