Synoptic-Scale Precursors to Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Atlantic Basin. (27th May 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Grimes, Alexandria; Mercer, Andrew E.
• Other Names: Gimeno Luis Academic Editor.
• Is Part Of: Advances in meteorology. Volume 2015(2015)
• Publication Date: 2015-05-27
• Subjects: Meteorology -- Periodicals; Meteorology; Periodicals; 551.505
• DOI: 10.1155/2015/814043
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1687-9309

Abstract

Abstract : Forecasting rapid intensification (hereafter referred to as RI) of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin is still a challenge due to a limited understanding of the meteorological processes that are necessary for predicting RI. To address this challenge, this study considered large-scale processes as RI indicators within tropical cyclone environments. The large-scale processes were identified by formulating composite map types of RI and non-RI storms using NASA MERRA data from 1979 to 2009. The composite fields were formulated by a blended RPCA and cluster analysis approach, yielding multiple map types of RI's and non-RI's. Additionally, statistical differences in the large-scale processes were identified by formulating permutation tests, based on the composite output, revealing variables that were statistically significantly distinct between RI and non-RI storms. These variables were used as input in two prediction schemes: logistic regression and support vector machine classification. Ultimately, the approach identified midlevel vorticity, pressure vertical velocity, 200–850 hPa vertical shear, low-level potential temperature, and specific humidity as the most significant in diagnosing RI, yielding modest skill in identifying RI storms.