W(h)ither away architecture? Urban futures between plausibility and ambiguity. (April 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Aquilar, Giorgia
• Is Part Of: Futures. Volume 128(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-04
• Subjects: Urban futures -- Evolutionary plausibility -- Ambiguity -- Anticipatory architecture -- Urban afterlives; Economic forecasting -- Periodicals; Technological forecasting -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Prévision économique -- Périodiques; Prévision technologique -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Economic forecasting; Economic policy; Technological forecasting; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 330.0112
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2021.102706
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0016-3287

Abstract

Highlights: Plausibility and ambiguity shapes futures through mutual interaction. Architecture is anticipatory, contributing to trans-disciplinary investigations of futures agency and literacy. A design that is sufficiently ambiguous is able to accommodate different plausible outcomes. Ambiguity tends to liberate futures from determinism, empowering plausible anticipations. Negotiating what to keep and what to abandon, plausibility unfolds its evolutionary potential. Abstract: One of the recurring dreams in the theories and practices of architecture is to see predictions actualized. However, visions rarely work out exactly as intended. Against this incongruity, this paper positions its argument between the need to envision realizable futures for the built environment and its inhabitants, and the relative unpredictability of the effects of their mutual interaction. In the attempt to engage with this dilemma, urban futures will be examined through the double lens of plausibility and ambiguity. Taking a cue from linguistics, it is argued that in the same way that language is able to accommodate multiple and even opposing interpretations, a design that is sufficiently ambiguous is able to accommodate different plausible outcomes. The mutual interactions of ambiguity and plausibility involve rethinking the thickness of the future, by analyzing its multiple temporalities and the overlapping socio-spatial strata it originates from and tends towards. From this double-sided perspective, how may plausibility contribute to formulating future projections that not only accept ambiguity but exploit its productive potential? By opening up the realm of the plausible to the unknown, and even the unknowable, ambiguity discloses its potential in countervailing currently dominant narratives based on technocentric future scenarios. Extrapolating from the realm of architecture to the broader spectrum of Futures Studies, this paper suggests that the incorporation of ambiguity liberates futures from the constrictions and myopia of deterministic visions based on plausibility alone, while ambiguity is mitigated by plausibility to avoid remaining trapped in uncertainty.