Adaptation Pathways and Real Options Analysis: An approach to deep uncertainty in climate change adaptation policies. Issue 2 (1st January 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Buurman, Joost; Babovic, Vladan
• Is Part Of: Policy & society. Volume 35:Issue 2(2016:Jun.)
• Page Start: 137
• Page End: 150
• Publication Date: 2016-01-01
• Subjects: Uncertainty -- Climate change adaptation -- Adaptation Pathways -- Real Options Analysis -- Adaptive Policy Making -- Water policy; Policy sciences -- Periodicals; Social policy -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; International relations -- Periodicals; Sciences de la politique -- Périodiques; Politique sociale -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Relations internationales -- Périodiques; Australia -- Politics and government -- 1945- -- Periodicals; Australia -- Economic conditions -- 1945- -- Periodicals; Pacific Area -- Politics and government -- Periodicals; Pacific Area -- Economic conditions -- Periodicals; Australie -- Politique et gouvernement -- 1945- -- Périodiques; Australie -- Conditions économiques -- 1945- -- Périodiques; Pacifique, Région du -- Politique et gouvernement -- Périodiques; Pacifique, Région du -- Conditions économiques -- Périodiques; 320.605
• DOI: 10.1016/j.polsoc.2016.05.002
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1449-4035

Abstract

Abstract: Governments face the daunting task of developing policies and making investment decisions for climate change adaptation in an environment that consist of complex, interlinked systems with manifold uncertainties. Instead of responding to surprises and making decisions on ad hoc basis, a structured approach to deal with complex systems and uncertainties can provide indispensable support for policy making. This contribution proposes a structured approach for designing climate adaptation policies based on the concepts of Adaptation Pathways, Adaptive Policy Making, and Real Options Analysis. Such an approach results in incorporation of flexibility that allows change over time in response to how the future unfolds, what is learned about the system, and changes in societal preferences. The approach is illustrated by looking at drainage policies and measures to address flooding in Singapore.