Interval type-3 fuzzy aggregators for ensembles of neural networks in COVID-19 time series prediction. (September 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Castillo, Oscar; Castro, Juan R.; Pulido, Martha; Melin, Patricia
• Is Part Of: Engineering applications of artificial intelligence. Volume 114(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-09
• Subjects: Interval type-3 fuzzy logic -- Fuzzy aggregation -- Time series prediction; Engineering -- Data processing -- Periodicals; Artificial intelligence -- Periodicals; Expert systems (Computer science) -- Periodicals; Ingénierie -- Informatique -- Périodiques; Intelligence artificielle -- Périodiques; Systèmes experts (Informatique) -- Périodiques; Artificial intelligence; Engineering -- Data processing; Expert systems (Computer science); Periodicals; 620.00285
• DOI: 10.1016/j.engappai.2022.105110
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0952-1976

Abstract

Abstract: In this work we are presenting an approach for fuzzy aggregation in ensembles of neural networks for forecasting. The aggregator is used in an ensemble to combine the outputs of the networks forming the ensemble. This is done in such a way that the total output of the ensemble is better than the outputs of the individual modules. In our approach a fuzzy system is used to estimate the weights that will be assigned to the outputs in the process of combining them in a weighted average calculation. The uncertainty in the process of aggregation is modeled with interval type-3 fuzzy, which in theory can outperform type-2 and type-1. Publicly available data sets of COVID-19 cases for several countries in the world were utilized to test the proposed approach. Simulation results of the COVID-19 data show the potential of the approach to outperform other aggregators in the literature.