Embedding sustainable land-use optimization within system dynamics: bidirectional feedback between spatial and non-spatial drivers. (September 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Azuara-García, Guadalupe; Palacios, Efrén; Montesinos-Barrios, Pilar
• Is Part Of: Environmental modelling & software. Volume 155(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-09
• Subjects: Time-space model -- Land response -- Genetic algorithm -- Spatial explicitness -- Economic and biophysics interactions; Environmental monitoring -- Computer programs -- Periodicals; Ecology -- Computer simulation -- Periodicals; Digital computer simulation -- Periodicals; Computer software -- Periodicals; Environmental Monitoring -- Periodicals; Computer Simulation -- Periodicals; Environnement -- Surveillance -- Logiciels -- Périodiques; Écologie -- Simulation, Méthodes de -- Périodiques; Simulation par ordinateur -- Périodiques; Logiciels -- Périodiques; Computer software; Digital computer simulation; Ecology -- Computer simulation; Environmental monitoring -- Computer programs; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 363.70015118
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105463
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1364-8152

Abstract

Abstract: In this paper, a space-time model is developed to support spatial planning. The temporal nature of the model allows the variables that condition land use to evolve periodically. In each time-step, land use allocation is optimized considering sustainability criteria. The model combines system dynamics techniques to simulate the evolution and interactions of economic and biophysical drivers using a multi-objective algorithm for spatial optimization that introduces bidirectional spatio-temporal feedback. It provides sets of maps for decision makers in which income and food self-sufficiency are maximized and the environmental impact of different what-if scenarios is minimized. The model has been applied in Los Llanos de San Juan (Mexico) for three scenarios: baseline, high and sustainable growth. The maps obtained by 2050 reduced water demand pressure by 1.4% and 4.7%, while crop production (in calories) was balanced with population food needs in 2035 and 2045 in the high and sustainable growth scenarios, respectively. Highlights: Time-space simulation in a single application for land use planning. Periodic bidirectionality between drivers and land response. Different simulation scenarios to inform discussion and decision-making. Food self-sufficiency and protection of water availability as territorial goals.