Evaluation of Influenza Vaccination Efficacy: A Universal Epidemic Model. (7th September 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Nizolenko, Lily Ph.; Bachinsky, Alexander G.; Bazhan, Sergei I.
• Other Names: Myles Puja Academic Editor.
• Is Part Of: BioMed research international. Volume 2016(2016)
• Publication Date: 2016-09-07
• Subjects: Medicine -- Periodicals; Biology -- Periodicals; Biotechnology -- Periodicals; Life sciences -- Periodicals; 610.5
• DOI: 10.1155/2016/5952890
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2314-6133

Abstract

Abstract : By means of a designed epidemic model, we evaluated the influence of seasonal vaccination coverage as well as a potential universal vaccine with differing efficacy on the aftermath of seasonal and pandemic influenza. The results of the modeling enabled us to conclude that, to control a seasonal influenza epidemic with a reproduction coefficient R 0 ≤ 1.5, a 35% vaccination coverage with the current seasonal influenza vaccine formulation is sufficient, provided that other epidemiology measures are regularly implemented. Increasing R 0 level of pandemic strains will obviously require stronger intervention. In addition, seasonal influenza vaccines fail to confer protection against antigenically distinct pandemic influenza strains. Therefore, the necessity of a universal influenza vaccine is clear. The model predicts that a potential universal vaccine will be able to provide sufficient reliable (90%) protection against pandemic influenza only if its efficacy is comparable with the effectiveness of modern vaccines against seasonal influenza strains (70%–80%); given that at least 40% of the population has been vaccinated in advance, ill individuals have been isolated (observed), and a quarantine has been introduced. If other antiepidemic measures are absent, a vaccination coverage of at least 80% is required.