A 4‐Month Lead Predictor of Open‐Water Onset in Bering Strait. Issue 17 (2nd September 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Luo, Xiaofan; Wang, Yali; Lu, Youyu; Wei, Hao; Zhao, Wei; Nie, Hongtao; Hu, Xianmin
• Is Part Of: Geophysical research letters. Volume 47:Issue 17(2020)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2020-09-02
• Subjects: ice concentration -- open‐water onset -- seasonal prediction -- Bering Strait; Geophysics -- Periodicals; Planets -- Periodicals; Lunar geology -- Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1029/2020GL089573
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0094-8276

Abstract

Abstract: This study reveals that the yearday of open‐water onset ( t open ) in Bering Strait can be predicted with a lead time of about 4 months using a regression equation t open = 37.45 C CN + 125.2 (in Julian days), with an averaged absolute error of 5 days and the maximum error of 12 days, where C CN is the ice concentration averaged from 16th January to 15th February near Cape Navarin. This "predictor" is revealed through analyzing the solution of a regional ocean and sea‐ice model. A key factor contribution to the prediction is that the prior winter ice concentration is controlled by the sea surface temperature, and persists into the start of the melting phase near the marginal ice zone in the Cape Navarin area. As ice melts near Cape Navarin, successive melting due to solar heat absorption and lateral heat transport occurs rapidly downstream along Anadyr Current. Plain Language Summary: Open‐water onset in Bering Strait has significant impacts on hydrological, ecological, and human activities in the Pacific‐Arctic region. There are scientific and practical interests if the onset dates ( t open ) can be predicted with a lead time as long as possible. This study reveals that t open can be predicted with ice concentration near Cape Navarin with a lead time of about 4 months. The Cape Navarin area is located on the Siberia coast of the Bering Sea, about 750 km southwest of Bering Strait. This "predictor" and underlying mechanism are revealed by analyzing the solution of a regional ocean and sea‐ice model. Key Points: Bering Strait open‐water onset can be predicted with ice concentration near Cape Navarin with a lead time of ~4 months The Cape Navarin area is located near the marginal ice zone where the ice coverage during freeze up affects melt onset Downstream Cape Navarin, successive melting due to solar heat absorption, and lateral heat transport occurs rapidly along Anadyr Current