Proposing a trend-based time-varying approach to assess climate- and human-induced impacts on streamflow. Issue 12 (9th September 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Li, Jianfeng; Shi, Xiaogang; Chen, Yongqin David; Zhang, Lu
• Is Part Of: Hydrological sciences journal. Volume 65:Issue 12(2020)
• Page Start: 2043
• Page End: 2056
• Publication Date: 2020-09-09
• Subjects: streamflow -- floods -- time-varying -- climate change -- human-induced impacts -- Pearl River Basin; Hydrology -- Periodicals; 551.4805
• DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2020.1785625
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0262-6667

Abstract

ABSTRACT: The conventional abrupt change-based assessments of climate- and human-induced impacts on streamflow require the existence of change point(s) and stationarity assumption. However, hydrological conditions may not change abruptly at a certain time, but rather evolve gradually over a period. We propose a trend-based time-varying approach that does not require these prerequisites to assess the climate- and human-induced impacts on hydrological conditions in the Pearl River Basin (PRB), China, which can be applied in other basins. The trend-based time-varying approach detects human activities exert a significant seasonal regulation on streamflow (i.e. 113% of the decreases in the wet season and 93% of the increases in the dry season) and 101% of the reductions in flood peaks in the East River Basin, the sub-basin with the highest ratio of total reservoir storage capacity to river discharge in the PRB. Climate change contributes to 77% of the increases in flood peaks in the West River Basin, a large sub-basin with lower flood control levels.