Mathematical modelling for scarlet fever with direct and indirect infections. Issue 1 (1st January 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zhong, Haonan; Wang, Wendi
• Is Part Of: Journal of biological dynamics. Volume 14:Issue 1(2020)
• Page Start: 767
• Page End: 787
• Publication Date: 2020-01-01
• Subjects: Multiple infection -- time delay -- final size -- global stability -- seasonal effect; 92D30 -- 34D23; Biology -- Mathematical models -- Periodicals; 570.15118
• DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2020.1833994
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1751-3758

Abstract

Abstract : Scarlet fever is an acute respiratory infectious disease and the incidence rate is increasing from 2011 throughout the world. In this paper, the mathematical models are proposed, which incorporate both direct transmissions and indirect transmissions of scarlet fever. The threshold conditions for disease invasion are obtained in terms of the basic reproduction number. The peak value, final size and epidemic time in a seasonal prevalence are investigated numerically. Furthermore, the effects of seasonal fluctuations on disease outbreak are also studied on the basis of real data in China.