A risk assessment model with systematical uncertainty treatment for container shipping operations. Issue 6 (17th August 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Nguyen, Son
• Is Part Of: Maritime policy & management. Volume 47:Issue 6(2020)
• Page Start: 778
• Page End: 796
• Publication Date: 2020-08-17
• Subjects: Risk assessment -- container shipping operation -- Bayesian network -- evidential Reasoning -- risk mapping; Marine resources -- Periodicals; Shipping -- Management -- Periodicals; Policy sciences -- Periodicals; 333.9164
• DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2020.1729432
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0308-8839

Abstract

ABSTRACT: The substantial adverse effects of risk factors on container shipping and logistics promoted a deep integration of risk analysis into the decision-making process. This paper aims to develop a well-grounded quantitative model to operational risk in a container shipping context. Considering uncertainty as a primary component of the risk concept, methods were employed in an inter-complementary manner to enable not only a sense of foreseeability but also a deeper look into the weaknesses of the knowledge base. The intersubjectivity of the input extraction process was supported by the Evidential Reasoning (ER) algorithm. Risks are then assessed based on a Fuzzy Rules Bayesian Network (FRBN) model with a 2-level parameter structure before meaningful interpretations can be derived through a new risk mapping approach. Besides an illustrative case study, the model was tested by sensitivity analysis and an examination of multiple validity claims.