Modeling world oil market questions: An economic perspective. (December 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Durand-Lasserve, Olivier; Pierru, Axel
• Is Part Of: Energy policy. Volume 159(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-12
• Subjects: Equilibrium models -- Market structure -- Energy transition -- Oil price; C61 -- L13 -- Q35 -- Q41; Energy policy -- Periodicals; Politique énergétique -- Périodiques; Electronic journals; 333.79
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112606
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0301-4215

Abstract

Abstract: The choice of a modeling approach is driven by the oil policy or market question that needs to be addressed. We provide the non-modeling community with insightful information on oil market models, shedding light on the economic interpretation of technical aspects (such as the meaning of the costs associated with certain types of constraints), but without introducing any mathematical formulations. We also emphasize the reasonings and assumptions underlying the modeling structures and solutions proposed in the literature. We first review how models have usually represented market fundamentals. We then examine recent modeling developments addressing market issues (such as the impact of the shale oil revolution and the shift in producers' behavior) and policy questions (such as the use of spare capacity to stabilize prices, the lifting of export controls, and the management of uncertainties surrounding the energy transition) that have emerged since the Great Recession. Moreover, given that climate policies increase the interdependency of all energy markets, we discuss how long-term multi-fuel models produce scenarios for oil as part of the global energy mix. We also suggest ways to tackle questions not yet covered by the oil market modeling literature, such as the dependence of government budgets on oil revenues. Highlights: New oil market and policy questions have emerged since the Great Recession. Models have evolved to capture changes in market structure. We discuss the economic or policy interpretation of specific types of constraints. Dispersion of long-term oil outlooks shows need for modeling effects of uncertainty. Models must recognize the importance of oil revenues for government budgets.