An Application of the Coherent Noise Model for the Prediction of Aftershock Magnitude Time Series. (20th February 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Christopoulos, Stavros-Richard G.; Sarlis, Nicholas V.
• Other Names: Cordero Alicia Academic Editor.
• Is Part Of: Complexity. Volume 2017(2017)
• Publication Date: 2017-02-20
• Subjects: Chaotic behavior in systems -- Periodicals; Complexity (Philosophy) -- Periodicals; 003
• DOI: 10.1155/2017/6853892
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1076-2787

Abstract

Abstract : Recently, the study of the coherent noise model has led to a simple (binary) prediction algorithm for the forthcoming earthquake magnitude in aftershock sequences. This algorithm is based on the concept of natural time and exploits the complexity exhibited by the coherent noise model. Here, using the relocated catalogue from Southern California Seismic Network for 1981 to June 2011, we evaluate the application of this algorithm for the aftershocks of strong earthquakes of magnitude M ≥ 6 . The study is also extended by using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor Project catalogue to the case of the six strongest earthquakes in the Earth during the last almost forty years. The predictor time series exhibits the ubiquitous 1 / f noise behavior.