Financing needs, spending projection, and the future of health in Brazil. (9th March 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Rocha, Rudi; Furtado, Isabela; Spinola, Paula
• Is Part Of: Health economics. Volume 30:Number 5(2021)
• Page Start: 1082
• Page End: 1094
• Publication Date: 2021-03-09
• Subjects: fiscal constraints -- health expenditures -- health system sustainability -- projection models; Medical economics -- Periodicals; Economics, Medical -- Periodicals; Health Care Costs -- Periodicals; Health Policy -- economics -- Periodicals; Health Services -- economics -- Periodicals; 362.1
• DOI: 10.1002/hec.4241
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1057-9230

Abstract

Abstract: In this paper we adopt a growth accounting projection model to estimate and characterize health‐financing needs in Brazil as well as to assess the extent to which financing needs may diverge from spending capacity in the future. We estimate an annual increase of 0.71% in the share of projected financing needs relative to GDP, with excess growth rates being 0.74% and 0.69% for the public and private health sectors, respectively. Institutional reforms and public spending restrictions may leverage public–private segmentation in health financing throughout the next decades, thus potentially leading to losses of equity in the system. Our projections contribute to a scant empirical literature on health financing sustainability in low‐ and middle‐income countries and shed light on the role of spending capacity and institutional constraints over the path towards universal health coverage.