Epidemics on networks with preventive rewiring. Issue 2 (7th December 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ball, Frank; Britton, Tom
• Is Part Of: Random structures & algorithms. Volume 61:Issue 2(2022)
• Page Start: 250
• Page End: 297
• Publication Date: 2021-12-07
• Subjects: branching process -- limit theorems -- random graph -- rewiring -- SIR epidemic; Random graphs -- Periodicals; Mathematical analysis -- Periodicals; 519
• DOI: 10.1002/rsa.21066
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1042-9832

Abstract

Abstract: A stochastic SIR (susceptible → infective → recovered) model is considered for the spread of an epidemic on a network, described initially by an Erdős–Rényi random graph, in which susceptible individuals connected to infectious neighbors may drop or rewire such connections. A novel construction of the model is used to derive a deterministic model for epidemics started with a positive fraction initially infected and prove convergence of the scaled stochastic model to that deterministic model as the population size n → ∞ . For epidemics initiated by a single infective that take off, we prove that for part of the parameter space, in the limit as n → ∞, the final fraction infected τ ( λ ) is discontinuous in the infection rate λ at its threshold λ c, thus not converging to 0 as λ ↓ λ c . The discontinuity is particularly striking when rewiring is necessarily to susceptible individuals in that τ ( λ ) jumps from 0 to 1 as λ passes through λ c .