Warming-induced vegetation growth cancels out soil carbon-climate feedback in the northern Asian permafrost region in the 21st century. (1st August 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Liu, Jianzhao; Yuan, Fenghui; Zuo, Yunjiang; Zhou, Rui; Zhu, Xinhao; Li, Kexin; Wang, Nannan; Chen, Ning; Guo, Ziyu; Zhang, Lihua; Sun, Ying; Guo, Yuedong; Song, Changchun; Xu, Xiaofeng
• Is Part Of: Environmental research letters. Volume 17:Number 8(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-08-01
• Subjects: CMIP6 -- climate change -- carbon storage -- permafrost -- carbon feedback -- driving factor -- dominate factor; Environmental sciences -- Periodicals; Human ecology -- Research -- Periodicals; Environmental health -- Periodicals; 333.7
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac7eda
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1748-9326

Abstract

Abstract: Permafrost soils represent an enormous carbon (C) pool that is highly vulnerable to climate warming. We used the model output ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the C storage in soil, litter, and vegetation in the current extent of northern Asian permafrost during 1900–2100. The contemporary (1995–2014) C storage was estimated to be 368.1 ± 82.5 Pg C for the full column depth of the soil, 13.3 ± 4.6 Pg C in litter, and 22.2 ± 3.2 Pg C in vegetation biomass, while these C storage levels are projected to decline by 3.9 Pg C (1.1%) in soils, increase of 0.03 Pg C (0.2%) in litter, and increase by 21.1 Pg C (95.3%) in vegetation biomass by the end of the 21st century under SSP585. The total C storage was dominated by warming-induced vegetation growth. Partial correlation analysis showed that surface air temperature (TAS), soil liquid water, and soil mineral nitrogen (SMN) dominated the soil and vegetation C pools, while SMN controlled litter C during the historical period. Under future scenarios, TAS and SMN dominated the changes of soil and litter C, while TAS determined the vegetation C increase. The growing soil C loss with warming indicates positive C-climate feedback in soils; this warming-induced acceleration of soil C loss was canceled out by the enhanced vegetation C accumulation, leading to a strong C sink in the 21st century.