Non-pharmaceutical interventions and mortality in U.S. cities during the great influenza pandemic, 1918–1919. Issue 2 (June 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Barro, Robert J.
• Is Part Of: Research in economics. Volume 76:Issue 2(2022)
• Page Start: 93
• Page End: 106
• Publication Date: 2022-06
• Subjects: Economics -- Periodicals; Économie politique -- Périodiques; 330.05
• DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2022.06.001
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1090-9443

Abstract

Abstract: A key issue for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is whether non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions (NPIs) retard death rates. Good information about causal effects from NPIs comes from flu-related excess deaths in large U.S. cities during the second wave of the Great Influenza Pandemic, September 1918-February 1919. The measured NPIs are in three categories: school closings, prohibitions of public gatherings, and quarantine/isolation. Although an increase in NPIs flattened the curve in the sense of reducing the ratio of peak to overall flu-related excess death rates, the estimated effect on overall deaths is small and statistically insignificant. These findings differ from those associated with COVID-19 in the sense that facemask mandates and usage seem to reduce COVID-related cases.