Low-elevation endemic Rhododendrons in China are highly vulnerable to climate and land use change. (July 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Yu, Fangyuan; Wu, Zhifeng; Shen, Jian; Huang, Jihong; Groen, Thomas A.; Skidmore, Andrew K.; Ma, Keping; Wang, Tiejun
• Is Part Of: Ecological indicators. Volume 126(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-07
• Subjects: Indicator -- Biodiversity -- Conservation -- Weighted endemism -- Range shift -- Protected areas; Environmental monitoring -- Periodicals; Environmental management -- Periodicals; Environmental impact analysis -- Periodicals; Environmental risk assessment -- Periodicals; Sustainable development -- Periodicals; 333.71405
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107699
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1470-160X

Abstract

Graphical abstract: Highlights: The potential synergistic effects of climate and land use change on 191 Chinese endemic Rhododendron species were studied. A nearly equal number of species was projected to lose or gain their suitable habitat. Low-elevation species are more vulnerable to climate and land use change than high-elevation species. The species at lower altitudes need more conservation attention under climate and land use change. Endemic Rhododendrons can be good indicators for the assessment of biodiversity conservation. Abstract: The combination of climate change and land use change may have profound effects on terrestrial biodiversity in more significant ways than either has separately. However, most studies focus largely on the climate change impacts, which hampers our ability to develop appropriate conservation strategies in a dramatically changing world. Here, we predict the distributions of 191 Chinese endemic Rhododendron species under future climate and land use change, combining two dispersal constraint scenarios by using a species distribution model. We then assess the vulnerability and extinction risk of these species and identify areas at risk of highest species loss. We find that 52% of the species are predicted to expand and shift their geographic ranges, typically to the northwest and north. The remaining 48% of species are predicted to contract in geographic ranges under the 'perfect-dispersal' scenario. And only 7% of Rhododendron are predicted to keep 'still', while the rest of species shrank with varying degree under the 'no-dispersal' scenario. Species lost particularly at lower elevations, and we also identify four regions at particularly high risk from the impacts of climate and land use change, namely the parallel ridge-and-valley areas of eastern Sichuan, southeastern Tibet, western and eastern Yunnan, southern Shaanxi, plus scattered areas in Guangdong, Hainan and Taiwan. We conclude that Chinese endemic Rhododendron species at lower elevations are highly vulnerable to climate and land use change, facing an elevated risk of extinction under varying scenarios. These species therefore call for more attention and protection. We highlight the critical role of endemic Rhododendron species as good indicators for measuring, evaluating and understanding the effectiveness of our biodiversity conservation efforts. Our work provides insight into the status, trends and threats regarding endemic Rhododendron species, identifying risks and prioritizing conservation in a rapidly changing world.