Why Do Election Results Change after Election Day? The "Blue Shift" in California Elections. (September 2022)
- Record Type:
- Journal Article
- Title:
- Why Do Election Results Change after Election Day? The "Blue Shift" in California Elections. (September 2022)
- Main Title:
- Why Do Election Results Change after Election Day? The "Blue Shift" in California Elections
- Authors:
- Li, Yimeng
Hyun, Michelle
Alvarez, R. Michael - Abstract:
- The counting of votes in contemporary American elections is usually not completed on Election Night. There has been an increasing tendency for vote shares to shift toward Democratic candidates after Election Day in general elections, in particular, in recent U.S. elections. Leveraging important snapshots of precinct-level election returns and precinct-level demographic and political composition from Orange County, California, we conduct the first full-fledged analysis of the potential drivers of vote share shifts. Using an original large-scale post-election survey and unique snapshots of individual-level administrative records, we also provide the first analysis of the characteristics of voters whose ballots were tallied later versus earlier in the process. Far from being anomalous, our results indicate that the shifts are consistent with underlying precinct voter compositions and the order of precinct and mail ballot processing at the individual level in accordance with election administration practices. We find the same driving forces in North Carolina and Colorado, and discuss the consequences of the "Blue Shift" for public concerns about election integrity as states push policy changes regarding access to voting by mail.
- Is Part Of:
- Political research quarterly. Volume 75:Number 3(2022)
- Journal:
- Political research quarterly
- Issue:
- Volume 75:Number 3(2022)
- Issue Display:
- Volume 75, Issue 3 (2022)
- Year:
- 2022
- Volume:
- 75
- Issue:
- 3
- Issue Sort Value:
- 2022-0075-0003-0000
- Page Start:
- 860
- Page End:
- 874
- Publication Date:
- 2022-09
- Subjects:
- American elections -- "Blue Shift" -- voting by mail
Political science -- Periodicals
Science politique -- Périodiques
320 - Journal URLs:
- http://prq.sagepub.com/ ↗
http://www.jstor.org/journals/10659129.html ↗
http://www.sagepublications.com/ ↗ - DOI:
- 10.1177/10659129211033340 ↗
- Languages:
- English
- ISSNs:
- 1065-9129
- Deposit Type:
- Legaldeposit
- View Content:
- Available online (eLD content is only available in our Reading Rooms) ↗
- Physical Locations:
- British Library DSC - BLDSS-3PM
British Library HMNTS - ELD Digital store - Ingest File:
- 22502.xml