Definitions and Reliability Evaluation of Multi-state Systems Considering State Transition Process and its Application for Gas Systems. (March 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Bao, Minglei; Ding, Yi; Yin, Xunhu; Shao, Changzheng; Ye, Chenjin
• Is Part Of: Reliability engineering & system safety. Volume 207(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-03
• Subjects: multi-state systems -- state transition process -- multi-state model -- universal generating function method -- gas dynamics; MSS-STP Multi-state systems considering state transition process -- MSS Multi-state systems -- NGS Natural gas system -- UGF Universal generating function -- TCD Transition curve discretization -- EDNS Expected demand not supplied -- LOLP Loss of load probability -- EGNS Expected gas not supplied -- IPMs Interior-point methods; Reliability (Engineering) -- Periodicals; System safety -- Periodicals; Industrial safety -- Periodicals; Fiabilité -- Périodiques; Sécurité des systèmes -- Périodiques; Sécurité du travail -- Périodiques; 620.00452
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107387
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0951-8320

Abstract

Highlights: The concepts and features of multi-state systems considering state transition process (MSS-STP) are innovatively proposed. The state space of the MSS-STP consists of a combination of discrete steady states and continuous transition curves. The traditional reliability evaluation framework for conventional multi-state systems is extended. The developed MSS-STP model is applied to natural gas system to demonstrate its effectiveness. Abstract: Multi-state system (MSS) models have been widely used to represent the reliability of engineering systems that have a finite number of performance levels. The previous studies related to the reliability evaluation of the MSSs generally follow the assumption that the transition among different performance states is instantaneous with no time delay. However, there exist several engineering systems that transit slowly between different states, such as gas supply systems and heating distribution systems. When evaluating the operating reliability of such an engineering system, the neglect of the non-instant state transition process may lead to inaccurate or insufficient evaluation results. To fill the research gap, the traditional MSS model is extended to handle the situation where the non-instant state transition features should be considered. The concepts and features of multi-state systems considering state transition process (MSS-STP) are innovatively proposed. Considering the non-instant state transition process, the traditional reliability evaluation framework for the MSSs is extended to evaluate the operating reliability of MSS-STP. The procedure of transition curve discretization is innovatively proposed to divide the dynamic transition process into a series of discrete states. The developed general MSS-TSP model is applied to the natural gas system (NGS) to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed reliability evaluation framework. The proposed technique can provide a useful tool for system operators to accurately evaluate the operating reliability of MSS-STP