Projections of coral cover and habitat change on turbid reefs under future sea-level rise. Issue 1929 (24th June 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Morgan, Kyle M.; Perry, Chris T.; Arthur, Rudy; Williams, Hywel T. P.; Smithers, Scott G.
• Is Part Of: Proceedings. Volume 287:Issue 1929(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-06-24
• Subjects: turbid reefs -- coral cover -- reef accretion -- sea level -- Great Barrier Reef; Biology -- Periodicals; 570.5
• DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.0541
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0962-8452

Abstract

Abstract : Global sea-level rise (SLR) is projected to increase water depths above coral reefs. Although the impacts of climate disturbance events on coral cover and three-dimensional complexity are well documented, knowledge of how higher sea levels will influence future reef habitat extent and bioconstruction is limited. Here, we use 31 reef cores, coupled with detailed benthic ecological data, from turbid reefs on the central Great Barrier Reef, Australia, to model broad-scale changes in reef habitat following adjustments to reef geomorphology under different SLR scenarios. Model outputs show that modest increases in relative water depth above reefs (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5) over the next 100 years will increase the spatial extent of habitats with low coral cover and generic diversity. More severe SLR (RCP8.5) will completely submerge reef flats and move reef slope coral communities below the euphotic depth, despite the high vertical accretion rates that characterize these reefs. Our findings suggest adverse future trajectories associated with high emission climate scenarios which could threaten turbid reefs globally and their capacity to act as coral refugia from climate change.