'Modelling' UK tourism demand using fashion retail sales. (July 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal; Hassani, Hossein
• Is Part Of: Annals of tourism research. Volume 95(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-07
• Subjects: Leading indicators -- Tourist arrivals -- Fashion retail sales -- Multivariate singular spectrum analysis -- UK; Tourism -- Periodicals
• DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2022.103428
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0160-7383

Abstract

Abstract: The United Kingdom (UK) is a world-renowned fashion hub where the economic importance of the tourism sector was recording continuous growth prior to the pandemic. Interestingly, tourism shopping is widely experienced yet seldom discussed from a tourism demand forecasting context. Driven by the potential relevance of tourism shopping and hoping to motivate increased collaboration between the tourism and fashion industries, we analyse whether fashion retail sales can be a leading indicator for inbound tourism demand in the UK. Using the Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis leading indicator algorithm, we forecast UK tourism demand and compare the results with six benchmark forecasting models. We find statistically significant evidence for the existence of cross-sector relations between the UK's fashion and tourism industries. Highlights: Reinforces the importance of tourism shopping for tourism demand. Evidences the link between fashion retail sales and tourism demand forecasting. Fashion retail sales are a leading indicator for UK's inbound tourism demand. Promotes collaboration between fashion and tourism industries.