Embattled authoritarians: continuity and collapse in Central and Southwest Asia. Issue 3 (1st September 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Sullivan, Charles J.
• Is Part Of: Asian security. Volume 16:Issue 3(2020)
• Page Start: 363
• Page End: 378
• Publication Date: 2020-09-01
• Subjects: Asia -- Politics and government -- Periodicals; Asia -- Foreign relations -- Periodicals; Asia -- Military policy -- Periodicals; 355.03305
• DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2019.1706490
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1479-9855

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Why are some authoritarian leaders able to stave off violent challengers to their rule while others falter? This article analyzes several case studies involving a series of nondemocratic governments and violent non-state actors waging war and posits that different combinations of variables lead to dissimilar outcomes (ranging from "civil war/insurgency", "regime implosion" or "foreign-based overthrow", "negotiated peace", to "strategic advance and retreat"). Accordingly, "embattled authoritarians" require a high level of "political-military aid" over time from a supportive foreign power to effectively combat "violent non-state challengers". However, it is difficult for such governments to completely escape from "embattled" status, particularly if a supportive foreign power does not exert influence to set parameters for peace between the warring parties and the level of international interference (i.e. political-military aid abetting violent non-state challengers courtesy of other foreign powers) does not recede over time. This article concludes with a forecast on Afghanistan and Tajikistan's respective futures and discusses how the onset of political instability within the former may serve to destabilize the political situation in the latter.