Forecast-informed reservoir operations to guide hydropower and agriculture allocations in the Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Issue 2 (4th March 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Alexander, Sarah; Yang, Guang; Addisu, Girmachew; Block, Paul
• Is Part Of: International journal of water resources development. Volume 37:Issue 2(2021)
• Page Start: 208
• Page End: 233
• Publication Date: 2021-03-04
• Subjects: Seasonal climate forecast -- reservoir operation -- optimization -- dynamic programming -- hydropower -- Ethiopia; Water resources development -- Periodicals; Water-supply, Agricultural -- Periodicals; 333.91005
• DOI: 10.1080/07900627.2020.1745159
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0790-0627

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Predictive hydroclimate information, coupled with reservoir system models, offers the potential to mitigate climate variability risks. Prior methodologies rely on sub-seasonal, dynamic/synthetic forecasts at short timescales, which challenge application in practice. Here, coupling a local-scale seasonal, statistical streamflow forecast with a reservoir model addresses this gap, to explore hydropower and agricultural production benefits under various operational strategies. Forecast-informed optimization of reservoir releases increases energy production (6–14%), agriculture allocations (54–68%), and net profit. Application to Ethiopia showcases a novel seasonal-scale statistical forecast coupled reservoir model that translates hydroclimatic predictions into actionable information for better management at the local scale.