A review of artificial intelligence based risk assessment methods for capturing complexity-risk interdependencies: Cost overrun in construction projects. Issue 2 (24th September 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Afzal, Farman; Yunfei, Shao; Nazir, Mubasher; Bhatti, Saad Mahmood
• Is Part Of: International journal of managing projects in business. Volume 14:Issue 2(2021)
• Page Start: 300
• Page End: 328
• Publication Date: 2019-09-24
• Subjects: Construction megaprojects -- Fuzzy logic -- Project complexity -- Project risk -- Project management assessment tool -- Risk management techniques; Project management -- Periodicals; Electronic journals; 658.404
• DOI: 10.1108/IJMPB-02-2019-0047
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1753-8378

Abstract

Abstract : Purpose: In the past decades, artificial intelligence (AI)-based hybrid methods have been increasingly applied in construction risk management practices. The purpose of this paper is to review and compile the current AI methods used for cost-risk assessment in the construction management domain in order to capture complexity and risk interdependencies under high uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach: This paper makes a content analysis, based on a comprehensive literature review of articles published in high-quality journals from the years 2008 to 2018. Fuzzy hybrid methods, such as fuzzy-analytical network processing, fuzzy-artificial neural network and fuzzy-simulation, have been widely used and dominated in the literature due to their ability to measure the complexity and uncertainty of the system. Findings: The findings of this review article suggest that due to the limitation of subjective risk data and complex computation, the applications of these AI methods are limited in order to address cost overrun issues under high uncertainty. It is suggested that a hybrid approach of fuzzy logic and extended form of Bayesian belief network (BBN) can be applied in cost-risk assessment to better capture complexity-risk interdependencies under uncertainty. Research limitations/implications: This study only focuses on the subjective risk assessment methods applied in construction management to overcome cost overrun problem. Therefore, future research can be extended to interpret the input data required to deal with uncertainties, rather than relying solely on subjective judgments in risk assessment analysis. Practical implications: These results may assist in the management of cost overrun while addressing complexity and uncertainty to avoid chaos in a project. In addition, project managers, experts and practitioners should address the interrelationship between key complexity and risk factors in order to plan risk impact on project cost. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy logic and BBN can better support the management implications in recent construction risk management practice. Originality/value: This study addresses the applications of AI-based methods in complex construction projects. A proposed hybrid approach could better address the complexity-risk interdependencies which increase cost uncertainty in project.