Modeling and forecasting complex patterns of mineral production. Gold mining in Canada. Issue 1 (1st January 2020)
- Record Type:
- Journal Article
- Title:
- Modeling and forecasting complex patterns of mineral production. Gold mining in Canada. Issue 1 (1st January 2020)
- Main Title:
- Modeling and forecasting complex patterns of mineral production. Gold mining in Canada
- Authors:
- Rodríguez, Sergio Pérez
- Editors:
- Peng, Tao
- Abstract:
- Abstract: The complex pattern of gold production in Canada, which differs from the classic Hubbert´s curve, is modeled, and a short-term forecast is made, via the Fundamental Equation of Mineral Production (FEMP). For intervals of time with a variable production to reserves ratio, a discrete piecewise version of the equation updates the reserves and the Production to Reserves Ratio (PRR) by units of time. These piecewise linear portions of the PRR correspond to sub-cycles of rising and declining production embedded in the overall history of production. This version of the FEMP allows modelling of any pattern of mineral production at a universal range of scales. The Hubbert´s linearization indicates the official account of reserves underestimates the real amount of gold resources in Canada. The equivalence between the Hubbert's formula and the FEMP is introduced. The Hubbert curve is shown as a case study of the Fundamental Equation, featured as the product of a quadratic function of the cumulative production and a rational function of the PRR with time. The forecast for Canada's current gold production illustrates the metal output is about to peak with an all-time record high in the near future, unless new findings or influential global economic factors are introduced (i.e., a sharp and sustained growth of gold demand from regional markets), allowing an increase of the slope of the linear function featured by the PRR of the FEMP-based model.
- Is Part Of:
- Cogent engineering. Volume 7:Issue 1(2020)
- Journal:
- Cogent engineering
- Issue:
- Volume 7:Issue 1(2020)
- Issue Display:
- Volume 7, Issue 1 (2020)
- Year:
- 2020
- Volume:
- 7
- Issue:
- 1
- Issue Sort Value:
- 2020-0007-0001-0000
- Page Start:
- Page End:
- Publication Date:
- 2020-01-01
- Subjects:
- production modelling -- mineral -- gold -- reserves -- Hubbert curve -- forecasting
Engineering -- Periodicals
Technology -- Periodicals
Engineering
Technology
Periodicals
620 - Journal URLs:
- http://bibpurl.oclc.org/web/73324 ↗
http://cogentoa.tandfonline.com/journal/oaen20 ↗
http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/oaen20/1/1 ↗
http://www.tandfonline.com/ ↗
http://cogentoa.tandfonline.com/journal/oaps20 ↗ - DOI:
- 10.1080/23311916.2020.1724849 ↗
- Languages:
- English
- ISSNs:
- 2331-1916
- Deposit Type:
- Legaldeposit
- View Content:
- Available online (eLD content is only available in our Reading Rooms) ↗
- Physical Locations:
- British Library DSC - BLDSS-3PM
British Library HMNTS - ELD Digital store - Ingest File:
- 21972.xml