Forecasting the wind direction by using time series models with long-term memory (case study: Nayer region). Issue 2 (16th July 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Soleimani, Paria; Emami, Bahareh; Rafei, Meysam; Shahrasbi, Hooman
• Is Part Of: International journal of energy sector management. Volume 15:Issue 2(2021)
• Page Start: 385
• Page End: 396
• Publication Date: 2020-07-16
• Subjects: ARIMA -- Forecasting -- Modelling -- Energy sector -- Renewable energies -- Wind -- Time series analysis -- Forecast -- Wind direction -- Wind turbine -- Time series -- Long-term memory; Energy industries -- Management -- Periodicals; 333.79068
• DOI: 10.1108/IJESM-04-2019-0002
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1750-6220

Abstract

Abstract : Purpose: Today, because of the increasing need for the energy resources and the reduction of fossil fuels, renewable energy, especially wind energy, has attracted special attention. The precise forecasting of such energy will be the main factor in designing and investing in this field. On the other hand, the wind energy forecast provides the possibility of optimal use of available resources. In addition, the produce maximum energy would be possible by identifying wind direction and putting wind turbines in the best position. Design/methodology/approach: Time series forecasting methods with long-term memory in this research have been used. Findings: Eventually, the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (3, 0, 0)-FIGARCH (1, 0, 1) long-term memory model has more acceptable performance. The obtained error is based on the RMSE (0.2889) and the TIC (0.2605) values. Practical implications: In this paper, the forecast wind direction belongs to Ardebil province and Nayer city in Iran. Originality/value: The speed and direction of wind are variables that constantly change; hence, it will be difficult to predict the exact wind energy. In recent years, some studies have been conducted on wind speed forecasting, whereas wind direction forecasting has been done in a fewer number of studies. Most studies are related to low-lying areas. As the height of the wind turbine is directly related to the energy generation, 78 m height has been considered in this study.