The Interdependence between Rainfall and Temperature: Copula Analyses. (13th November 2012)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Cong, Rong-Gang; Brady, Mark
• Other Names: Thomas G. O. Academic Editor.; Varotsos C. Academic Editor.
• Is Part Of: TheScientificWorldjournal. Volume 2012(2012)
• Publication Date: 2012-11-13
• Subjects: Science -- Periodicals; Technology -- Periodicals; Medicine -- Periodicals; 505
• DOI: 10.1100/2012/405675
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2356-6140

Abstract

Abstract : Rainfall and temperature are important climatic inputs for agricultural production, especially in the context of climate change. However, accurate analysis and simulation of the joint distribution of rainfall and temperature are difficult due to possible interdependence between them. As one possible approach to this problem, five families of copula models are employed to model the interdependence between rainfall and temperature. Scania is a leading agricultural province in Sweden and is affected by a maritime climate. Historical climatic data for Scania is used to demonstrate the modeling process. Heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of sample data are also considered to eliminate the possibility of observation error. The results indicate that for Scania there are negative correlations between rainfall and temperature for the months from April to July and September. The student copula is found to be most suitable to model the bivariate distribution of rainfall and temperature based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Using the student copula, we simulate temperature and rainfall simultaneously. The resulting models can be integrated with research on agricultural production and planning to study the effects of changing climate on crop yields.