A minimal model for household effects in epidemics. (15th October 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Huber, Greg; Kamb, Mason; Kawagoe, Kyle; Li, Lucy M; Veytsman, Boris; Yllanes, David; Zigmond, Dan
• Is Part Of: Physical biology. Volume 17:Number 6(2020:Dec.)
• Publication Date: 2020-10-15
• Subjects: epidemiology -- pandemic -- COVID-19 -- confinement strategies -- mean-field theory; Biophysics -- Periodicals; Biochemistry -- Periodicals; Biology -- Data processing -- Periodicals; 570.5
• DOI: 10.1088/1478-3975/abb209
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1478-3967

Abstract

Abstract: Shelter-in-place and other confinement strategies implemented in the current COVID-19 pandemic have created stratified patterns of contacts between people: close contacts within households and more distant contacts between the households. The epidemic transmission dynamics is significantly modified as a consequence. We introduce a minimal model that incorporates these household effects in the framework of mean-field theory and numerical simulations. We show that the reproduction number R 0 depends on the household size in a surprising way: linearly for relatively small households, and as a square root of size for larger households. We discuss the implications of the findings for the lockdown, test, tracing, and isolation policies.