687. Modeling the Impact of Introduction of Influenza Vaccination on ILI Cumulative Case Count in Cameroon. (26th November 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Tamoufe, Ubald; Ortiz, Nancy; Saylors, Karen; LeBreton, Matt; Meguia, Viviane; Djoko, Cyrille; Njouom, Richard
• Is Part Of: Open forum infectious diseases. Volume 5(2018)Supplement 1
• Page Start: S248
• Page End: S248
• Publication Date: 2018-11-26
• Subjects: Communicable diseases -- Periodicals; Medical microbiology -- Periodicals; Infection -- Periodicals; 616.9
• DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofy210.694
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2328-8957

Abstract

Abstract: Background: Influenza illness can range from mild to severe, with serious outcomes occurring in children and the elderly. Flu has been studied extensively in geographies where vaccine is often plentiful. The burden of influenza is not well known in tropical regions where vaccine coverage is scant. Our study examines the impact of introducing flu vaccination on cumulative incidence in a Cameroonian population with <0.2% influenza vaccine utilization Methods: The data consists of 1 year of flu surveillance from patients presenting with influenza-like-illness at clinics in Cameroon. Samples underwent RT-PCR influenza screening. Analysis was performed in Berkeley Madonna. We developed ordinary differential equations (ODE)s under the SEIR compartmental model and calculated R0. We estimated the proportion of cases the clinics observed to make inferences to the catchment population of these health facilities. We developed another set of ODEs to introduce vaccination using a pulse function with a 50% efficacy and 45% vaccination coverage. Results: We observed 82.9% reduction in flu cases by introducing vaccination at 45% coverage (US average). Cameroon would likely achieve reduced coverage. Therefore, we examined introducing vaccination with 10% coverage, and observed that flu cases were cut by over one third. Conclusion: This analysis demonstrates that introducing vaccination in Cameroon clinics would reduce influenza cases substantially even with only a small proportion of the population vaccinated. Flu vaccination campaigns should be strongly considered as they can reduce case count which may reduce the likelihood of transmitting flu to those who are at risk the most severe outcomes. Disclosures: All authors: No reported disclosures.