A log-odds system for waning and boosting of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness. Issue 28 (21st June 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Szanyi, Joshua; Wilson, Tim; Scott, Nick; Blakely, Tony
• Is Part Of: Vaccine. Volume 40:Issue 28(2022)
• Page Start: 3821
• Page End: 3824
• Publication Date: 2022-06-21
• Subjects: COVID-19 -- SARS-CoV-2 -- Vaccine -- Immunity -- Waning -- Model; Vaccines -- Periodicals; 615.372
• DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.05.039
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0264-410X

Abstract

Abstract: Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following vaccination wanes over time in a non-linear fashion, making modelling of likely population impacts of COVID-19 policy options challenging. We observed that it was possible to mathematize non-linear waning of vaccine effectiveness (VE) on the percentage scale as linear waning on the log-odds scale, and developed a random effects logistic regression equation based on UK Health Security Agency data to model VE against Omicron following two and three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. VE on the odds scale reduced by 47% per month for symptomatic infection after two vaccine doses, lessening to 35% per month for hospitalisation. Waning on the odds scale after triple dose vaccines was 35% per month for symptomatic disease and 19% for hospitalisation. This log-odds system for estimating waning and boosting of COVID-19 VE provides a simple solution that may be used to parametrize SARS-CoV-2 immunity over time parsimoniously in epidemiological models.