One day ahead prediction of global TEC using Pix2pixhd. Issue 2 (15th July 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Yang, Ding; Li, Qingfeng; Fang, Hanxian; Liu, Zhendi
• Is Part Of: Advances in space research. Volume 70:Issue 2(2022)
• Page Start: 402
• Page End: 410
• Publication Date: 2022-07-15
• Subjects: Forecast -- Deep learning -- IGS -- TEC -- IRI; Space sciences -- Periodicals; Astronautics -- Periodicals; Geophysics -- Periodicals; 500.505
• DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2022.03.038
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0273-1177

Abstract

Abstract: In this paper, we make a 1-day forecasting of global total electron content (TEC) using pix2pixhd that is a novel deep learning method based on GAN. For training, we use the International GNSS Service (IGS) TEC maps from 2003 to 2018, covering the entire solar cycle with a training set (2003–2013), a validation set (2018), and a test set (2014–2017). Then we evaluate our model using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (CC) and compare our model with IRI-2016. As a result, our model shows a good performance for TEC forecast with one day in advance. From the average difference between output maps of our model and target ones (+1 day IGS TEC maps) as well as between IRI TEC maps (+1 day) and target ones and corresponding standard deviations, our model behaves better than IRI at a global scale, especially at low latitudes. Under different conditions of geomagnetic and solar activities, the prediction effect of our model is always better than IRI. Our model behaves well during geomagnetic quiet conditions, but is affected during geomagnetic storms showing stronger deviations. Besides, our model behaves better during solar maximum than minimum days. Our work demonstrates a new possibility for the application of deep learning on a broader field of geosciences, particularly for problems of prediction.