Validating a spatio-temporal model of observed neighborhood physical disorder. (June 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Plascak, Jesse J.; Mooney, Stephen J.; Schootman, Mario; Rundle, Andrew G.; Llanos, Adana A.M.; Qin, Bo; Hong, Chi-Chen; Demissie, Kitaw; Bandera, Elisa V; Xu, Xinyi
• Is Part Of: Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology. Volume 41(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-06
• Subjects: Built environment -- Observed neighborhood physical disorder -- Virtual neighborhood audit -- Spatio-temporal universal Kriging -- Perceived neighborhood physical disorder; Epidemiology -- Statistical methods -- Periodicals; Epidemiology -- Periodicals; 614.4072
• DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2022.100506
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1877-5845

Abstract

Highlights: Virtual audit of observed neighborhood physical disorder via Google street view. Spatio-temporal regression Kriging to predict physical disorder. Model accuracy and concurrent validity with space-time lagged perceived disorder. Greater validity nearest spaces and times of perceived disorder responses. Using spatio-temporal model depends on space-time precision of epidemiologic data. Abstract: This study tested spatio-temporal model prediction accuracy and concurrent validity of observed neighborhood physical disorder collected from virtual audits of Google Street View streetscapes. We predicted physical disorder from spatio-temporal regression Kriging models based on measures at three dates per each of 256 streestscapes ( n = 768 data points) across an urban area. We assessed model internal validity through cross validation and external validity through Pearson correlations with respondent-reported perceptions of physical disorder from a breast cancer survivor cohort. We compared validity among full models (both large- and small-scale spatio-temporal trends) versus large-scale only. Full models yielded lower prediction error compared to large-scale only models. Physical disorder predictions were lagged at uniform distances and dates away from the respondent-reported perceptions of physical disorder. Correlations between perceived and observed physical disorder predicted from the full model were higher compared to that of the large-scale only model, but only at locations and times closest to the respondent's exact residential address and questionnaire date. A spatio-temporal Kriging model of observed physical disorder is valid.