An investigation of international tourist flow modelling during the pandemic. Issue 12 (18th June 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zhong, Lina; Sun, Sunny; Law, Rob; Deng, Baolin
• Is Part Of: Current issues in tourism. Volume 25:Issue 12(2022)
• Page Start: 1910
• Page End: 1919
• Publication Date: 2022-06-18
• Subjects: International tourism flow -- modelling -- pandemic; Tourism -- Social aspects -- Periodicals; Tourism -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Travel -- Periodicals; 338.479105
• DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2021.1972941
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1368-3500

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Infectious disease normally largely affects international tourist flow. For example, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak has greatly affected global tourism, and its effect is expected to extend further. As the first country in the world to detect the pandemic, how the international tourist flow to Mainland China (hereafter known as China) changes along with the COVID-19 outbreak is still underexplored. To bridge this research gap, this study identifies the changes in the international tourist flows to China by categorizing international tourists to seven regions of the world and examines the degree of sensitivity among five clustered groups through Python modelling. Findings show that the international tourist flows from Europe, Asia Pacific and North America to China were largely affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. In addition, different sensitivity levels of the five identified clusters among the 193 countries affected by infectious disease ranged from 'least sensitive' to 'most sensitive'. Practical implications are further discussed.