Carceral Amplification of COVID-19: Impacts for Community, Corrections Officer, and Incarcerated Population Risks. Issue 4 (27th April 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Lofgren, Eric T.; Lum, Kristian; Horowitz, Aaron; Mabubuonwu, Brooke; Meyers, Kellen; Fefferman, Nina H.
• Is Part Of: Epidemiology. Volume 33:Issue 4(2022)
• Page Start: 480
• Page End: 492
• Publication Date: 2022-04-27
• Subjects: COVID-19 -- SARS-CoV-2 -- Carceral amplification -- Jails; Epidemiology -- Periodicals; Epidemiology -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Epidemiology -- Periodicals; 614.405
• DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001476
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1044-3983

Abstract

Abstract : COVID-19 is challenging many societal institutions, including our criminal justice systems. Some have proposed or enacted (e.g., the State of New Jersey) reductions in the jail and/or prison populations. We present a mathematical model to explore the epidemiologic impact of such interventions in jails and contrast them with the consequences of maintaining unaltered practices. We consider infection risk and likely in-custody deaths, and estimate how within-jail dynamics lead to spill-over risks, not only affecting incarcerated people but increasing exposure, infection, and death rates for both corrections officers and the broader community beyond the justice system. We show that, given a typical jail-community dynamic, operating in a business-as-usual way results in substantial, rapid, and ongoing loss of life. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that large-scale reductions in arrest and speeding of releases are likely to save the lives of incarcerated people, jail staff, and the wider community.