Vote Expectations Versus Vote Intentions: Rival Forecasting Strategies. Issue 1 (19th January 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Murr, Andreas E.; Stegmaier, Mary; Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
• Is Part Of: British journal of political science. Volume 51:Issue 1(2021)
• Page Start: 60
• Page End: 67
• Publication Date: 2021-01-19
• Subjects: election forecasting, -- British elections, -- opinion polls, -- prediction models, -- election surveys, -- uniform swing, -- cube rule; Political science -- Periodicals; 320.05
• DOI: 10.1017/S0007123419000061
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0007-1234

Abstract

Abstract: Are ordinary citizens better at predicting election results than conventional voter intention polls? The authors address this question by comparing eight forecasting models for British general elections: one based on voters' expectations of who will win and seven based on who voters themselves intend to vote for (including 'uniform national swing model' and 'cube rule' models). The data come from ComRes and Gallup polls as well as the Essex Continuous Monitoring Surveys, 1950–2017, yielding 449 months with both expectation and intention polls. The large sample size permits comparisons of the models' prediction accuracy not just in the months prior to the election, but in the years leading up to it. Vote expectation models outperform vote intention models in predicting both the winning party and parties' seat shares.