The effect of different prediction methods of population in villages and towns on assessing the suitability of biomass energy development. (20th August 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Li, Chanyun; Zhang, Yifei; Ma, Keni; Li, Tongyu
• Is Part Of: Journal of cleaner production. Volume 363(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-08-20
• Subjects: Population prediction -- Villages and towns -- Biomass energy -- Suitability analysis; Factory and trade waste -- Management -- Periodicals; Manufactures -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Déchets industriels -- Gestion -- Périodiques; Usines -- Aspect de l'environnement -- Périodiques; 628.5
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132382
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0959-6526

Abstract

Abstract: We investigate herein the development of biomass energy within a study area, to study how changes in population scale affects the suitability of biomass energy development in villages and towns. The analysis is performed by predicting the development trend of the total population and electricity consumption in the study area, and by establishing a biomass potential profit and loss model. With rural areas in western Guangdong as the research object, this study uses three different population prediction models, including the growth rate method, trend extrapolation method, and gray prediction method, to predict the population change trend of the study area in the next decade. The results of the growth rate method indicate a negative population growth rate of 5.28% for the study area over the next 10 years. We used Origin software to conduct polynomial fitting analysis on historical population data, and to make trend extrapolation predictions, the results demonstrate that in the short run, the population maintain a stable decline of approximately 1.7% by 2030. The results of the gray prediction model indicate that the population shows a slight decrease of 0.3‰.We determined the quantity of straw resources and the theoretical power generation potential of regional biomass based on the crop yields of Maoming, Zhanjiang, and Yangjiang, as well as the collectable coefficient and corresponding calorific value of straw in Guangdong Province. The total amount of crop straw resources in western Guangdong is approximately 120 522.6 tons, and the total biomass theoretical power generation potential is 305 × 10 3 MWh, the goal of 100% biomass energy supply will not be fully realized before 2030. Among these, the biomass energy supply in Maonan District of Maoming City is expected to reach 40–60%, and surplus energy demand may possibly combine with other renewable and traditional energy sources. The southern part of Zhanjiang has slightly less potential for biomass energy development than Maoming, with a maximum potential of 25%. All three prediction models suggest that Yangjiang is not suitable for biomass development in the short term, and its biomass potential will only meet 1% of its energy needs by 2030. Highlights: The population of villages and towns in the study area demonstrate a decline over the next decade. Using three models to predict the trends of rural population and power demand. Theoretical potential of biomass power in the study area is 305 × 10 3 MWh. Biomass energy supply in Maonan District of Maoming City reach 40%–60% by 2030.