Least cost energy system pathways towards 100% renewable energy in Ireland by 2050. (15th September 2020) - Yue, Xiufeng
Abstract: Studies focusing on 100% renewable energy systems have emerged in recent years; however, existing studies tend to focus only on the power sector using exploratory approaches. This paper therefore undertakes a whole-system approach and explores optimal pathways towards 100% renewable energy by 2050. The analysis is carried out for Ireland, which currently has the highest share of variable renewable electricity on a synchronous power system. Large numbers of scenarios are developed using the Irish TIMES model to address uncertainties. Results show that compared to decarbonization targets, focusing on renewable penetration without considering carbon capture options is significantly less cost effective in carbon mitigation. Alternative assumptions on bioenergy imports and maximum variability in power generation lead to very different energy mixes in bioenergy and electrification levels. All pathways suggest that indigenous bioenergy needs to be fully exploited and the current annual deployment rate of renewable electricity needs a boost. Pathways relying on international bioenergy imports are slightly cheaper and faces less economic and technical challenges. However, given the large future uncertainties, it is recommended that further policy considerations be given to pathways with high electrification levels as they are more robust towards uncertainties. Highlights: 100% renewable energy can be achieved by multiple pathways with similar cost levels. Focusing only on renewables is not the most cost-effective path to decarbonization. Pathways relying on bioenergy import are more susceptible to uncertainties. Indigenous bioenergy needs to be exploited to its full potential. Much greater efforts than current national action plans are required.