A novel dynamic time-delay grey model of energy prices and its application in crude oil price forecasting. (15th July 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Duan, Huiming; Liu, Yunmei; Wang, Guan
• Is Part Of: Energy. Volume 251(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-07-15
• Subjects: Energy prices -- Time-delay -- Grey prediction model -- Price of oil -- Prediction; Power resources -- Periodicals; Power (Mechanics) -- Periodicals; Energy consumption -- Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.123968
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0360-5442

Abstract

Abstract: The correct forecasting of energy prices can better regulate energy market allocation, reduce the unit energy allocation cost, and maximize the economic benefits of the energy allocation cost. First, this paper aims to study the time-delay in the energy supply and demand relationship, which directly affects changes and fluctuations in the energy price. Starting from the market economic model, this paper analyses the dynamic time-delay process of energy prices by using the relationship between energy supply, demand and prices, and it establishes the time-delay differential equation of energy prices. Second, a novel dynamic grey time-delay forecasting model of energy prices is selected based on the differential information of the differential equation and difference equation and the principle of data reduction. The parameters and optimization methods of the model are studied to obtain the modeling process of the model. Finally, the novel model is applied to predict the Novel York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures price, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Brent crude oil futures price, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) basket crude oil spot price. The forecasting results are better than those of the other four grey prediction models, which indicates that the novel model can effectively predict the oil price and that the novel model can describe the dynamic change law of the energy price system with a time-delay. Highlights: A novel dynamic grey time delay energy price prediction model is proposed. The dynamics and time delay of the new model are studied. Simulated annealing method was used to optimize the background value and lag parameters. Take crude oil futures prices of three blocks as examples to conduct empirical analysis.