Flood susceptibility evaluation through deep learning optimizer ensembles and GIS techniques. (15th August 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Costache, Romulus; Arabameri, Alireza; Costache, Iulia; Crăciun, Anca; Md Towfiqul Islam, Abu Reza; Abba, S.I.; Sahana, Mehebub; Pham, Binh Thai
• Is Part Of: Journal of environmental management. Volume 316(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-08-15
• Subjects: Flood susceptibility -- Romania -- Iterative classifier optimizer -- Neural networks -- Decision tree; Environmental policy -- Periodicals; Environmental management -- Periodicals; Environment -- Periodicals; Ecology -- Periodicals; 363.705
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115316
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0301-4797

Abstract

Abstract: It is difficult to predict and model with an accurate model the floods, that are one of the most destructive risks across the earth's surface. The main objective of this research is to show the prediction power of three ensemble algorithms with respect to flood susceptibility estimation. These algorithms are: Iterative Classifier Optimizer – Alternating Decision Tree – Frequency Ratio (ICO-ADT-FR), Iterative Classifier Optimizer – Deep Learning Neural Network – Frequency Ratio (ICO-DLNN-FR) and Iterative Classifier Optimizer – Multilayer Perceptron – Frequency Ratio (ICO-MLP-FR). The first stage of the manuscript consisted of the collection and processing of the geodatabase needed in the present study. The geodatabase comprises a number of 14 flood predictors and 132 known flood locations. The Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) method was used in order to assess the prediction capacity of the 14 predictors in terms of flood susceptibility estimation. The training and validation of the three ensemble models constitute the next stage of the scientific workflow. Several statistical metrics and ROC curve method were involved in the evaluation of the model's performance and accuracy. According to ROC curves all the models achieved high performances since their AUC had values above 0.89. ICO-DLNN-FR proved to be the most accurate model (AUC = 0.959). The outcomes of the study can be used to guide future flood risk management and sustainable land-use planning in the designated area. Graphical abstract: Image 1 Highlights: New 3 deep learning hybrid models were proposed for flood susceptibility modelling. 14 flood predictors were used to represents the spatial extension of flood susceptibility. All the 3-ensemble obtained very high performance in terms of flood susceptibility computation. ICO-DLNN-FR was the most performant algorithm.