A compartmental epidemic model incorporating probable cases to model COVID-19 outbreak in regions with limited testing capacity. (May 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hasan, A.; Nasution, Y.
• Is Part Of: ISA transactions. Volume 124(2022)
• Page Start: 157
• Page End: 163
• Publication Date: 2022-05
• Subjects: COVID-19 -- Probable case -- Extended Kalman filter -- Reproduction number; Engineering instruments -- Periodicals; Engineering instruments; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 629.805
• DOI: 10.1016/j.isatra.2021.01.029
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0019-0578

Abstract

Abstract: We propose a new compartmental epidemic model taking into account people who have symptoms with no confirmatory laboratory testing (probable cases). We prove well-posedness of the model and provide an explicit expression for the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ). We use the model together with an extended Kalman filter (EKF) to estimate the time-varying effective reproduction number ( R t ) of COVID-19 in West Java province in Indonesia and the state of Michigan in the USA, where laboratory testing capacities are limited. Based on our estimation, the value of R t is higher when the probable cases are taken into account. This correction can be used by decision and policy makers when considering re-opening policy and evaluation of public measures.