Jumping to a better world: An agent-based exploration of criticality in low-carbon energy transitions. (January 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Kraan, Oscar; Dalderop, Steven; Kramer, Gert Jan; Nikolic, Igor
• Is Part Of: Energy research & social science. Volume 47(2019)
• Page Start: 156
• Page End: 165
• Publication Date: 2019-01
• Subjects: Energy transition -- Simulation -- Critical transitions -- Agent-based modelling; Power resources -- Social aspects -- Periodicals; Energy consumption -- Social aspects -- Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2018.08.024
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2214-6296

Abstract

Abstract: Understanding the possible transition pathways of the energy system requires the integration of human behaviour in energy system models. In order to model the influence of actor behaviour we have developed ACT (Agent-Based Model of Critical Transitions), an agent-based model inspired by an existing conceptualisation of critical transitions. ACT allows us to depart from the current mean-field approach and explicitly explore the effects of heterogeneity, leaders, and networks on the transition. Two key finding are (1) the importance of local communities and (2) leaders can both encourage and discourage the energy transition; a finding that nuances existing literature on critical transitions. We conclude with a reflection on the strengths and weaknesses of our modeling approach.