Projected changes in the season of hot days in the Middle East and North Africa. (26th August 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Varela, Rubén; Rodríguez‐Díaz, Laura; Barriopedro, David; de Castro, Maite; Costoya, Xurxo; García‐Herrera, Ricardo; Gómez‐Gesteira, Moncho
• Is Part Of: International journal of climatology. Volume 42:Number 4(2022)
• Page Start: 2195
• Page End: 2207
• Publication Date: 2021-08-26
• Subjects: climate change -- CORDEX -- extreme temperatures -- future projections -- hot days season -- Iberian Peninsula -- MENA -- Turkey; Climatology -- Periodicals; Climat -- Périodiques; Climatologie -- Périodiques; 551.605
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.7360
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0899-8418

Abstract

Abstract: The present study analyses changes in the timing and duration of the hot days season over the Middle East and North Africa region from 1970 to 2099 using model simulations of 11 regional models from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment under the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, a non‐symmetrical lengthening of the hot days season is projected, with a tendency to extend more into spring than into autumn. By the end of the century and the RCP8.5 scenario, Western Africa and the Persian Gulf display a hot days season starting 60 days earlier than in the historical period (1970–1999) (May vs. July, respectively). Southernmost latitudes are the most affected by a later retreat of the hot days season, of up to 60 days with respect to the historical period (October vs. August). The length of the extreme season is projected to increase between 100 and 120 days for the southernmost latitudes and the Persian Gulf resulting in nearly four more months with hot days conditions. Abstract : Multi‐model mean (solid lines) annual evolution and inter‐model spread (±1 standard deviation, grey shading) of the hot days season for the MENA region during the historical period (1970‐2005) and the RCP8.5 scenario (2006‐2099):