What Factors Contribute to the Aggressive Foreign Policy of Russian Leaders?. Issue 1 (2nd January 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Snegovaya, Maria
• Is Part Of: Problems of post-communism. Volume 67:Issue 1(2020)
• Page Start: 93
• Page End: 110
• Publication Date: 2020-01-02
• Subjects: Post-communism -- Periodicals; Post-communism; Periodicals; 330.91717
• DOI: 10.1080/10758216.2018.1554408
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1075-8216

Abstract

Abstract : This paper explores the correlates of Russia's aggressive international policy and argues that rising oil revenues increase the aggressiveness of presidential foreign-policy rhetoric. Using content analysis and machine-learning techniques, I generate a measure of aggressive discourse as the share of anti-Western sentences in Russian presidential speeches delivered between 2000 and 2016. These are analyzed using OLS regression with lagged dependent variables. I conclude that the aggressiveness of foreign-policy rhetoric in Russian presidential speeches positively correlates to oil prices. I also find no support for alternative explanations linking hawkish foreign policy to NATO expansion or domestic legitimacy concerns.