A review of solar forecasting, its dependence on atmospheric sciences and implications for grid integration: Towards carbon neutrality. (June 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Yang, Dazhi; Wang, Wenting; Gueymard, Christian A.; Hong, Tao; Kleissl, Jan; Huang, Jing; Perez, Marc J.; Perez, Richard; Bright, Jamie M.; Xia, Xiang'ao; van der Meer, Dennis; Peters, Ian Marius
• Is Part Of: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews. Volume 161(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-06
• Subjects: AGC automatic generation control -- AOD aerosol optical depth -- CAISO California Independent System Operator -- CAMS Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service -- CCN cloud condensation nuclei -- CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project -- CSP concentrating solar power -- DNI direct normal irradiance -- ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast -- GBD global dimming and brightening -- GHI global horizontal irradiance -- GEOS-5 Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 -- GPI graphical processing unit -- GTI global tilted irradiance -- HRRR High-Resolution Rapid Refresh -- IFS Integrated Forecasting System -- IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -- LES large eddy simulation -- MAE mean absolute error -- MAPE mean absolute percentage error -- MYNN Mellor–Yamada Nakanishi and Nino -- NAM North American Mesoscale -- NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration -- NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration -- NWP numerical weather prediction -- PBL planetary boundary layer -- PLF probabilistic load flow -- PMF perfect forecast metric -- PV photovoltaic -- RAP Rapid Refresh -- RMSE root mean square error -- S2S sub-seasonal to seasonal -- SDS-WAS World Meteorological Organization's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System -- T&D transmission and distribution -- WRF Weather Research and Forecasting; Review -- Solar forecasting -- Atmospheric sciences -- Power systems -- Grid integration -- Carbon neutrality; Renewable energy sources -- Periodicals; Power resources -- Periodicals; Énergies renouvelables -- Périodiques; Ressources énergétiques -- Périodiques; 333.794
• DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2022.112348
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1364-0321

Abstract

Abstract: The ability to forecast solar irradiance plays an indispensable role in solar power forecasting, which constitutes an essential step in planning and operating power systems under high penetration of solar power generation. Since solar radiation is an atmospheric process, solar irradiance forecasting, and thus solar power forecasting, can benefit from the participation of atmospheric scientists. In this review, the two fields, namely, atmospheric science and power system engineering are jointly discussed with respect to how solar forecasting plays a part. Firstly, the state of affairs in solar forecasting is elaborated; some common misconceptions are clarified; and salient features of solar irradiance are explained. Next, five technical aspects of solar forecasting: (1) base forecasting methods, (2) post-processing, (3) irradiance-to-power conversion, (4) verification, and (5) grid-side implications, are reviewed. Following that, ten potential research topics for atmospheric scientists are enumerated; they are related to (1) data and tools, (2) numerical weather prediction, (3) forecast downscaling, (4) large eddy simulation, (5) dimming and brightening, (6) aerosols, (7) spatial forecast verification, (8) multivariate probabilistic forecast verification, (9) predictability, and (10) extreme weather events. Last but not least, a pathway towards ultra-high PV penetration is laid out, based on two recently proposed concepts of firm generation and firm forecasting. It is concluded that the collaboration between the atmospheric science community and power engineering community is necessary if we are to further increase the solar penetration while maintaining the stability and reliability of the power grid, and to achieve carbon neutrality in the long run. Highlights: Common pitfalls of solar forecasting research are given, with remedies proposed. Five technical aspects of solar forecasting are discussed, with a special focus on grid-integration implications. Ten potential research topics for atmospheric scientists are identified. A pathway towards ultra-high PV penetration is laid out.