A Bayesian Belief Network Model for the Risk Assessment and Management of Premature Screen-Out during Hydraulic Fracturing. (February 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zio, Enrico; Mustafayeva, Maryam; Montanaro, Andrea
• Is Part Of: Reliability engineering & system safety. Volume 218:Part A(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-02
• Subjects: premature screen-out -- risk assessment -- Bayesian Belief Network -- experts probability elicitation -- Sobol's indices -- robustness of Bayesian Networks -- risk importance measures -- scenario analysis; Reliability (Engineering) -- Periodicals; System safety -- Periodicals; Industrial safety -- Periodicals; Fiabilité -- Périodiques; Sécurité des systèmes -- Périodiques; Sécurité du travail -- Périodiques; 620.00452
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.108094
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0951-8320

Abstract

Abstract: Hydraulic fracturing is a well completion technique for Oil and Gas production enhancement in both conventional and unconventional reservoirs. However, it can result in the unfavorable consequence of the premature screen-out, which occurs due to the proppant bridging across the perforations or similar restricted flow areas. The objective of this work is to propose a novel framework of analysis that enables to quantify the risk of screen-out occurrence, to identify the riskiest scenarios and to determine the best risk mitigation strategies. The premature screen-out problem is addressed within a Risk Management and Control Process, wherein the qualitative and quantitative assessments of the early screen-out risk are performed by a Features, Events and Processes Analysis structured with a Bayesian Belief Network. The BBN probabilities are subject to a thorough uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis is performed by the Sobol's variance decomposition method and the identified most influential probabilities of the BBN are re-estimated in order to reduce the output uncertainty. Finally, risk mitigation plans are formulated using risk importance measures to identify the riskiest scenarios and cost-benefit analysis to determine the optimal risk reduction actions The developed framework has been applied to a case study of vertical wells.